What happens now that Russia says it has won farce referendums in Ukraine
None of the four regions where the referendums took place are completely under Russian control, and Ukrainian forces have made further progress since they routed Russian troops in Kharkiv province as well. While in the provinces of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is located, "tough fighting" is still underway, according to reports from Reuters, which saw the bombing by the Russians of over 60 villages and cities.
According to the reconstructions and videos released online, Russian officials and military have even brought home-by-home urns to many of the militarily occupied territories, where there have also been threats of informing in the event of failure to participate in the vote. In this context, Moscow has achieved the results it wanted, arguing that the outcome of the votes brought results between 87% and 99.2% in favor of annexation to Russia.
Russian telephone operators are popping up in Ukraine In the occupied territories, Russian companies offering telephone and internet services have begun to appear, but the Ukrainian counter-offensive is changing things
What happens now
The purpose of this sham consultation, declared illegitimate by Ukraine and the West, is to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive which managed to put the entire invasion in serious difficulty. By declaring the territories in question as part of Russia, Moscow will be able to claim to be threatened in its territorial integrity by Kyiv, fielding the hypothesis of a nuclear attack in the context of what would be presented to the world as a defense move. >According to the Guardian, the Council of the Russian Federation will not call an extraordinary assembly to deliberate on the annexation, but will await the ordinary session scheduled for October 4, 2022. this choice could indicate both the opening of a space for negotiations and the need for the Kremlin to take time to verify the effective internal support for the annexation.
If the Council approves the annexation, the the entire military strategy would change from a "defensive" perspective. Moscow could start hitting government and civilian buildings again in all Ukrainian regions or try to hit Kyiv again. At the same time it could hold nuclear exercises or even carry out tactical nuclear attacks to scare and damage Ukraine. At home, however, the Kremlin could close its borders or introduce martial law, instituting a curfew, arresting opponents, seizing property or opening internment camps.
The West has declared the entire operation illegitimate and coercive and the United States will present a resolution to the United Nations Security Council, calling on member states not to recognize any changes in Ukraine and to force Russia to withdraw its troops. Should Moscow veto this resolution, the United States will take the issue to the United Nations General Assembly, which can take the place of the Council in case of inaction.
