What the data on the first results of the presidential elections in France tell us
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Here if you don't see the map The provinces that tend to pink are those in which the outgoing president is in the lead, those that turn blue are those in which his challenger has the advantage. The darker a color, the greater the distance between the two in terms of percentage points.
Now, beyond the geographical distribution of the vote, it is interesting to investigate the economic aspects behind this outcome. In fact, many analysts have spoken of a normalization process for the far-right candidate. Which, in recent weeks, would have abandoned the sovereign workhorses of immigration and security, to concentrate instead on economic issues.
Now, if you cross the results of the first round with the data relating to wealth produced by the various French regions, that is the per capita GDP, and with unemployment, it is clear how this strategy has paid off
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Here if you don't see the graph Each point represents a department (the French provinces). The higher and higher the unemployment rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021, the further to the right and the higher the GDP per capita during 2020, the most recent data available. Also in this case, if the color tends to pink, Macron has the advantage, if to blue Le Pen. The larger and darker a point is, the greater the gap in terms of percentage points.
It is also good to specify that you have chosen to eliminate the extremes to improve the visualization. That is, La Réunion, Guadeloupe and Guyane, with unemployment over 14%, low GDP and a lepenist majority. And Paris and Hauts-de-Seine, with a GDP per capita much higher than 50 thousand euros, an unemployment rate below the average and a solid Macronian majority in the first round.
The result is, however, that of a divided country between the two candidates on the basis of purely economic issues. Nor is it new to see right-wing, sovereign or populist formations establishing themselves in the most economically depressed areas: Vox in Spain, Alternative für Deutschland in the former East Germany or, to return within the Italian borders, Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle in the South.
This, in short, is the situation after the first round. Considering that one in two voters chose neither Macron nor Le Pen, there is room for the result of Sunday 24 April to be overturned. Much will depend on the weight that internal issues, precisely economic ones, and international ones will have on the voters. The Rassemblement National candidate never hid her sympathies for Vladimir Putin, Macron stood out for his activism in calling for a tightening of sanctions against Russia on the energy sector. One more reason for interest than the race to Elisha.
