The arms race in Europe comes from before the war in Ukraine

Not only has war returned to Europe, but weapons are also returning to take on an increasingly central role in the budget calculations of the countries of the Old Continent. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even those who had historically kept out of the arms race, such as Denmark and Sweden, are redefining their philosophy on defense investments, while for others, such as Italy, there is a 'surge in already massive spending in the war industry sector.

In reality, however, apart from a few exceptions, the increase in military spending is a trend that comes from further away, disconnected or if anything only accentuated by events Ukrainians. "What is called the 'arms race' was actually already in motion, today we look at the war in Ukraine only to find a new justification which, however, has no consistency", explains to sportsgaming.win Francesco Vignarca, analyst and founder of ' Mil € x observatory on military spending.

Italy is spending more on military weapons and technologies than it says From euro drones to Tempest fighters, from funds for research on artificial intelligence to satellites for surveillance : the defense ministry's shopping list is long, the Parliament overwhelmed with programs to be approved and purchases require more funds than those allocated Read the article The increase in military spending in Europe On February 24, Russia invaded the Ukraine and launched air raids on major cities in the country. The international reaction was not long in coming, but if among the alternatives at stake there was that of a direct military intervention led by NATO with which to defend the attacked state, the choice for now has fallen on other options. In particular, that of economic sanctions, which are not just bringing Moscow to its knees, but also that of the shipment of arms to Kyiv.

This military correspondence with Ukraine, combined with the more or less sudden discovery that a war can also break out on European soil, has brought the question of military spending, or its increase, back to the center of the political debate of many countries. On March 16, for example, the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved an agenda committing the government to start increasing defense spending towards the 2% of GDP target, then confidence was placed on the vote in the Senate. A turning point that, according to current accounts, would increase spending from 25.8 billion a year to 38 billion a year, a very substantial increase in short.

At the end of February, when the war had broken out for a few days, Germany, through the words of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, announced the inclusion in the budget of an extraordinary allocation of 100 billion euros to strengthen the army and an annual expenditure in the sector exceeding 2% of GDP. Even the president of France Emmanuel Macron has envisaged greater investments in defense while Poland, where military spending already exceeds this threshold, has announced its intention to reach 3% for next year and double the strength of its army.

And the same trend is recorded in countries that have historically maintained a very different approach on the subject. Denmark after decades of opt-out, a clause that allowed it to stay out of participation in the military and defense operations of the European Union, has announced a referendum to change the state of things, while neutral Sweden (which does not part of NATO) has declared that it wants to increase spending on national defense by dedicating 2% of GDP to it. On 21 March, the Council of the European Union approved the strategic defense plan up to 2030 (Strategic Compass), which among other things will lead to the birth of a sort of European military corps that can have up to 5 thousand units and will push individual member states to increase and optimize their defense spending.

Autonomous weapons take the field in the war in Ukraine Russia has been accused of using kamikaze drones, the United States is considering supplying new ones similar for defense. But internationally, for some time now people have been asking to ban "killer robots", before it is too late Read the article A rearmament that comes from afar The common feeling is that with the outbreak of war in Ukraine, European states and beyond, after years of demilitarization, they have returned to putting defense at the center of their thoughts. And that the famous ceiling set by NATO of 2% of GDP to be allocated to this sector is finding application only now, after having remained a dead letter for years and having left the Atlantic Alliance with holes in means and resources. In reality, however, things are not quite like this.

"Global military spending has been steadily increasing since 2001, after the attack on the Twin Towers in New York and the beginning of the so-called US-led war on terrorism - Vignarca points out -. From that year to today, the overall increase has been 90%. It seemed that this phase could end a few months ago with the end of the mission in Afghanistan, but now another justification has been found for a further relaunch ". In 2020, the share of global military spending has reached 1.981 billion dollars, last year's figures are not yet there, but the 2 trillion dollars will certainly be exceeded.

The European Union does not shy away from out of this trend. After a steady decline with the end of the Cold War in the percentage of GDP destined for defense, starting from 2015 the figure began to rise again. From 2014 to 2020, member countries raised their defense budgets from € 159 billion to € 198 billion, a 25% increase over six years. Italy alone in 2021 presented 31 new armament programs, a historical record both from a quantitative point of view and, then, for the resources already mobilized with the first tranches of financing: 15 billion euros, which could soon become 30. .

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“This arms race that has been going on for years dismantles the theory that one must arm oneself to be safer: we have been doing it for some time and yet we have not obtained any more security ”, Vignarca emphasizes. "Even referring to the Russian threat does not hold, in the meantime because Moscow will emerge from this war much weaker economically and militarily, moreover, after the invasion of Crimea, NATO has already allocated 5,500 billion more than Russia to military spending, 14 times what it did from Moscow ".

International political pressure, the increase in fear of the European population with governments that support it, the lobbying of the armaments industry are however favoring a new surge in military spending in recent weeks, the effects of which, moreover, they will see each other in the long run. And Vignarca points the finger at the system behind all this, that famous 2% ceiling of NATO considered a binding dogma which, however, is not such.

“This value has no technical justification, no one has ever said that 2% of GDP is needed to do certain things. Simply when this quota was established, all the countries apart from the USA, the United Kingdom and Greece were below - concludes the analyst of the Mil € x Observatory -. Moreover, it is a senseless parameter to be used as a preventive: meanwhile the GDP also looks at the wealth produced by individuals, then you cannot predict it, you do not know what the GDP of 2022 will be, let alone that of 2023. It is only a parameter used in a fictitious way and instrumental to push towards an increase in military spending ".