Do the white zone criteria risk reducing tracking?

Soon all of Italy could be white, but the experts of the Gimbe Foundation warn about a possible risk of the Regions' disinterest in actively identifying new cases of Covid-19

(photo: Getty Images) 'summer, thanks to the pace of the vaccination campaign, it seems that the Covid emergency is giving respite to our country: total cases, hospitalizations for symptoms and intensive care are decreasing, and deaths are decreasing. So much so that it is expected that soon in all the Regions there will be less than 50 new cases per day per 100 thousand inhabitants for three consecutive weeks - the main criterion for the transition to the much desired white zone, according to the latest decree.

In this context, however, there could be some flaws, at least according to the Gimbe Foundation which still continues the independent monitoring activity of the epidemiological trend of the coronavirus: together with all the other parameters, in fact, it has dropped a lot also the number of swabs carried out, with considerable regional differences. And experts warn: it is right now that we cannot afford to give up tracking.

The Covid-19 situation

According to the Gimbe Foundation report, as of June 1st i numbers of new cases and deaths confirmed a decrease compared to the previous week, respectively -27% and -28%. The same applies to the trend of currently positive cases (225,751 vs 268,145), for people in home isolation (218,570 vs 258,265), hospitalizations with symptoms (6,192 vs 8,557) and intensive care (989 vs 1,323).
In short, the circulation of the virus and the pressure on hospitals are progressively decreasing. And this can only be positive.

Conflict of disinterest

What worries the experts, however, is the decline in testing activity and the disparity between Regions.

If until May 10 the number of people tested each week had remained stable, in the last three weeks it decreased by 33.7% (from 662.549 to 439.467). It means that in this period an average of 120 people per day per 100 thousand inhabitants were subjected to the molecular or antigenic test, "with clear regional differences: from 199 in Lazio to 49 in Puglia", reads the report of the Gimbe Foundation.

“Unfortunately, the criteria for conquering and maintaining the white zone, introduced with Legislative Decree 18 May 2021 n. 65, discourage the Regions to enhance testing activities and resume tracing, just when the numbers of the infection would allow the use of a weapon that has never been adequately used ", commented Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe, who defined that of Regions a "conflict of disinterest" towards tracking. "A paradox, because finding more cases clearly risks not conquering or losing the white zone".

The #zonabianca is conquered after 3 consecutive weeks with an incidence <50 cases / 100 thousand inhabitants.

But it would be "good and right" to define a standard of people tested given the inequalities between #Regions # COVID19 pic.twitter.com/qPNLHr4Kfs

- Nino Cartabellotta (@Cartabellotta) June 4, 2021



"The clear improvement of the pandemic framework, if on the one hand certifies the success of the 'reasoned risk', on the other hand requires that prudent optimism be accompanied by a shared strategy between the Government and the Regions to guarantee the irreversibility of reopening “.

In this sense, it could be useful for experts to introduce corrective measures (for example a standard of swabs to be carried out per 100 thousand inhabitants), incentives for the Regions to continue with monitoring and tracing, which is now really possible. Doing so will also make it easier to identify and stem new outbreaks in good time, and increase sequencing to follow the spread of Sars-Cov-2 variants.


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Coronavirus Italy Coronavirus numbers Sars-Cov-2 variants globalData.fldTopic = "Coronavirus, Italy, Coronavirus numbers, Sars-Cov-2 variants "

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