Should we expect an increase in infections after the celebrations for the Scudetto at Inter?

After Inter's Scudetto victory party, Wired analyzed the effects on contagions of two similar events: the promotion of Spezia to Serie A and the death of Maradona

(photo: Ipa) It hadn't happened in eleven years. And it came after nine consecutive titles from rivals Juventus. This explains, but does not justify, the celebrations seen yesterday afternoon in Piazza del Duomo in Milan, after Inter won the Scudetto. The newspapers speak of 30 thousand fans celebrating in the center of the Lombard capital.

The question that everyone is asking is whether this gathering can cause an increase in the cases of positivity to Sars-CoV-2 in Milan. Having said that the risk of contagion outdoors is lower than indoors (even if the zero risk does not exist), Wired has chosen to rely on data to try to understand what can happen.

And first of all it has done so. starting from two events, always linked to the world of football, which led many people to take to the streets and gather. The first took place at the end of August 2020, in La Spezia. Here there was no scudetto to celebrate, but the Ligurian club's first historic promotion to Serie A.

About a thousand fans followed the game from the parking lot in front of the Alberto Picco stadium, others joined later the final whistle. This, however, is the impact on infections:

body.isDesktop .tableauPlaceholder {height: auto! important;} body.isDesktop .tableauWrapper iframe {height: auto! important ;;}. tableauWrapper> p {line-height: 0; margin: 0! important ;} The choice was to isolate the month preceding the event and the two following ones. As you can see, in the previous days La Spezia (the data refers to the entire province) had never recorded more than twenty daily infections. The number started to rise already a week after the celebrations, but after 14 days (the incubation time of Sars-Cov-2) the increase in the curve has become more substantial.

Having said that the peaks below are due to the drop in the number of swabs performed over the weekend, it took a month to return to the levels before the celebrations, just a couple of weeks for the second wave curve to start here too.

In this case, therefore, there was an increase in infections two weeks after the gatherings of the fans. Clearly, indicating a cause-and-effect relationship is not possible. But the data indicate a growth of the curve in times compatible with the celebrations of the evening of August 20.

The other example taken into consideration refers instead to Naples. Football is involved here too, but it's not about celebrations. Diego Armando Maradona died last November 25, who brought two championships, an Italian cup, an Italian super cup and a Uefa cup to the stadium that today bears his name.

All in the late 1980s and the early 90s. But after thirty years the myth of the Pibe de Oro still lives in the Campania capital. So much so that many, that evening, went to the stadium or took to the square to express the mourning of a city.

A city, it should be remembered, which ten days earlier had entered the red zone, as indeed the whole Campania. While, this too should be specified, in August the subdivision of the country in color based on the trend of the epidemic had not yet been implemented. Here is the situation of the infections in the previous month and in the two following months in the province of Naples.

body.isDesktop .tableauPlaceholder {height: auto! Important;} body.isDesktop .tableauWrapper iframe {height: auto! Important; ;}. tableauWrapper> p {line-height: 0; margin: 0! important;} In this case, the event came at the end of a contagion curve that had affected the Neapolitan. And, right from the end of November, the number of new daily positives began to decline and stabilized in the following two months.

The data alone, in short, do not provide a unique indication. A further element to take into consideration may be the situation of the contagion curve when people took to the streets. In La Spezia it was flat, in Naples it was downhill. And in Milan?

body.isDesktop .tableauPlaceholder {height: auto! Important;} body.isDesktop .tableauWrapper iframe {height: auto! Important ;;}. TableauWrapper> p {line-height: 0; margin : 0! Important;} In this case, the data from the last month has been isolated. The contagion situation seems to be more comparable to that seen at the end of November in Naples. So much so that Lombardy became a yellow zone about ten days ago.

Not to mention that, compared to the previous two, there is now an additional element: the vaccination campaign, which in Lombardy has seen a quarter of the citizens receive at least the first dose. The effect of the combination of all these elements, of course, will not be seen for two weeks. The hope, just as obviously, is that no one should regret taking to the streets to celebrate the Scudetto.

[Disclaimer: the author of the article is an Inter fan]

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