China could experience its first population decline in 50 years

In the past year, the population should have fallen below 1.4 billion. This decline could spell the end of birth control policies

Some people in China seek shelter from the heat with a dip in the water (Photo: Yang Bo / Getty Images) After 50 years of continuous population growth and control policies births, China's population may decline for the first time. The Financial Times reported today, anticipating the official census data produced by the Chinese National Statistical Office (NBS), which has postponed the release of the results.

According to the Reuters news agency, they are not Explanations were released for the delay in publishing the data, which was scheduled for this month. However, being a very sensitive figure, it may not yet have received the approval of the government, which will also have to evaluate the implications on the economy and politics of the country. According to the Financial Times, the Chinese population should have reached fewer than 1.4 billion people and this could have a negative influence on China's productivity.

"If China were to confirm this decline, it would be a big deal," Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Shenzhen-based investment fund Pinpoint Asset Management, told Reuters. Furthermore, it could also mark the end of China's birth control policies, which had already passed from one child to two children in 2016. In that year, the government also set a goal of bringing the population over 1.42 billion by 2020. , but the birth rate has not grown enough. This depends, in particular, on the very low number of couples with children of the generations born from the 90s onwards. It may also have contributed to the increase in the cost of living in large cities.

“China should probably completely relax its birth control policy - said Zhang -. Our projections suggested that the workforce would already decline by 0.5% each year by 2030, with a similar impact for GDP. Such a slowdown in growth could make it very difficult to reach the United States economically ”. United Nations forecasts indicate that the US population is expected to increase by 15% in 2050, compared to 2019 levels, while China's population could decrease by 2.2%.


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