What roads can this government crisis take: scenarios for Giuseppe Conte

Italia viva has opened the government crisis and now the prime minister is deciding the next steps, which pass from the approval of budget variance and refreshments. Will there be a new government or will the premier agree with Renzi?

(photo: Antonio Masiello / Getty Images) After Matteo Renzi's party, Italia Viva, formally parade from the executive, we entered a crisis government in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. Today at 1 pm the conference of the group leaders of the Chamber of Deputies is called, while the president of the Chamber Roberto Fico has suspended the work by inviting the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to report to the assembly (he will probably do so after January 20, date of the vote on the budget variance). In the meantime, the center-right has already begun to call for early elections, but there are different scenarios that now open up before the Conte bis government.

According to what Corriere della Sera writes, Palazzo Chigi would be looking for those responsible to support an alternative majority in parliament. If even only a part of the group of IV decided not to follow Renzi's line and still support Conte, for example, this solution could become quite concrete for a so-called Count ter, but above all there is the Mixed Group, where you are now MPs. ex grillini have joined Bruno Tabacci's Democratic Center formation, clearly supporting the executive. However, it seems that the premier is buying time, orienting himself towards a reshuffle that would allow him to remain in office as prime minister with this majority. When Conte goes to report to the chambers, he could bring the crisis back to parliament, checking if there is room for maneuver before asking for a vote of confidence (for example, in the week missing Renzi could obtain the guarantees he requested from Conte, bringing the crisis back ).

If Conte fails to recompose a majority, then he would be forced to resign at the Quirinale. At that point, yes, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella could allow the formation of a Conte ter government - in the presence of numbers capable of supporting it, of course - or he could open consultations with the main political parties for the formation of a government with a head a new prime minister. From the latter option, a new national or technical unity government could also be born led by a prominent figure outside the world of politics (such as the jurist Marta Cartabia or the economist Mario Draghi: the two most discussed names of the last days).

Finally, in the event of Conte's resignation and in the absence of the possibility of any political agreement between the parliamentary groups, then we would go to early elections in full second wave of coronavirus.

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